Trying to fit eight football teams into two playoff slots is like trying to fit Ralphie May into a pair of skinny jeans. This is exactly what we as sports fan have the opportunity to witness when it comes to the AFC Playoff picture. With eight teams vying for two spots and only four games remaining for each contender, I figure I'd take the mystery out of the "who" for my readers and explain the "why". As a fan, and as it being so close to the holidays, I did some research to see if the Jets would be in or out at the end of week 17. My hopes are to take the mystery out, and the edge off, so I am less irritable as I am spending two precious weeks back home with my family. Here it goes:
The Denver Broncos, who have a two-game lead in the Wild Card race over the teams on the outside, will wind up at 10-6 with a loss at Indy this weekend, followed by a win at home against Oakland, a loss at Philly, and a home win versus KC.
With the Broncos in, one spot remains for seven teams that are realistically in the hunt. What is going to make this race even more exciting is that most of the teams play each of the other teams at least once before their respective season ends. All of these teams are capable of beating each other since they are the equivalent to mid-major NFL squads, resulting in plenty of high-intensity end of the year match-ups.
If you are unable to stomach the watching of these high-stakes games, be easy. The Chiefs host the Browns this weekend and the Browns host the Raiders next weekend.
Seven today will dwindle down to three when the season's final regular season whistle blows.
Texans fans need not continue reading. They don't even need to watch their team's final two games. After beating two weak NFC West teams (vs. SEA and at STL) the Texans will lose to two AFC East teams (at MIA and vs. NE), finishing at 7-9 and possibly in the market for a new Head Coach.
The Jags will lose their next three games (vs. MIA, vs. IND, and at NE) and end with a win (at CLE) to finish a .500 football team, which leaves them out.
The Dolphins win in JAX, lose at TN, win hosting HOU, and lose at home against PIT, suffering the same 8-8 fate as the Jags.
The Titans' 0-6 start will prove too much as they also finish with the same amount of wins as loses with their four games yielding wins at home against STL and MIA before losing at home to SD and wrapping up 2009 with a road win in SEA.
With these four failures out of the picture, like me at Meredith's "Family" Thanksgiving picture in 2008, three teams are in position to clinch the final spot.
The J-E-T-S keep it going with wins at TB, vs. ATL, and at IND (assuming starters will be rested) before losing their final game at home against the Bengals, who will need to win to perhaps earn a 1st round bye, or even clinch the AFC North. The Jets finish 9-7.
The Steelers win at CLE, lose at home to a great pass-oriented GB team, get revenge at home against BAL, and win in MIA to also end up 9-7.
The Ravens win road games in DET and in CHI before losing at PIT and winning in OAK. The Ray-Rays also end up at 9-7 in a three-way tie for the final spot.
Since the Ravens and Steelers play in the same division, their tie-break scenario takes precedence and the Jets only need to TKO the winner of that tiebreak in order to make the postseason. The Ravens and Steelers would split if my predictions hold up and end up 3-3 in the division (sweeping the Browns, getting swept by the Bengals, and splitting), causing the team with the best record against common opponents to take the bacon. The Ravens upcoming wins against the Bears and Raiders, both teams the Steelers fell to, would give them the nod over PIT.
The Jets and Ravens would be the final two teams for that one spot and whichever team earns a better record against AFC opponents will be the 6 seed. After week 17 the Ravens will have wins against KC, SD, CLE, DEN, CLE, PIT, and OAK, with losses against NE, CIN, CIN, IND, and PIT for a record of 7-5. The Jets would own victories over HOU, NE, TEN, OAK, BUF, and IND, and defeats at the hands of MIA, BUF, MIA, JAC, NE, and CIN for a 6-6 AFC record and enough bad loses to keep them from a playoff run.
Baltimore locks up the 6th seed joining the 5th seeded Broncos as the AFC Wild Card representatives.
Just Sayin'...
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Parity
Dictionary.com defines parity as equality, as in amount, status, or character. For those of us hoping for the dethroning of sports dynastys when they are seated high upon their throne, parity is what we long for. It is great for a sport when it can constantly feature contests of evenly matched teams. Fans come to the parks/staduims/arenas or watch on TV.
Why, then, is parity not celebrated in college football?
The SEC has three ranked teams, all in the top 8: Florida (1), Alabama (2), and LSU (3). The Pac-10 has five ranked schools, 11 or lower: Oregon (11), Stanford (17), USC (18), Oregon St. (19), and California (25).
People will jump at the chance to tell you how great the SEC is (especially out this way) and laugh if you even ask about the legitimacy another conference. I believe that the Pac-10 is another legitimate conference that gets no love because the teams in their conference can -and do- beat up on each other every season. Not only do they play a tough conference schedule, they also play the toughest non-conference schedule in college football. While Alabama schedules Florida International, North Texas, and UT-Chattanooga (they also played #15 Va Tech at a neutral site), Florida schedules Charleston Southern, Florida International, Troy, and Florida State, and LSU schedules Washington, Louisiana-Lafayette, Tulane, and Louisianna Tech, Oregon plays at #6 Boise State, hosts Purdue and #21 Utah, Stanford plays at Wake Forest, hosts San Jose State and Notre Dame, USC hosts San Jose State and travels to #10 Ohio State and Notre Dame, Oregon State plays Portland State, UNLV, and #5 Cincinatti, and California plays an SEC-esque non-conference schedule with Maryland, Eastern Washington, and Minnesotta.
Obviously the Pac-10 ranked teams will have more games against ranked opponents than the SEC ranked teams due to their conference schedules, but the Pac-10 consistently goes East against ranked or 2nd tier programs which feature games that offer parity. I think Georgia is the only SEC team to play outside of the "south" when they lost their opener in Stillwater, OK against the Cowboys of OK State.
Do I think Florida and Alabama could beat these ranked Pac-10 Schools? Of Course. I give those teams the nod 8 out of 10 times against the ranked Pac-10 teams, except USC, who will win four out of ten.
The SEC championship game will be fun to watch because it features two evenly-matched teams vying for a spot in the BSC National Title Game (unless the MOCS knock off Bama this weekend in Tuscaloosa!!!). Aside from that I would much rather follow the Pac-10 regular season. Florida and Alabama fans have a 50% chance to win their conference and all of the marbles are laid down in one game. Pac-10 supporters of these 5 ranked teams have a 20% chance to win their conference. The odds are weaker, but the payoff is greater. Will their teams get to hoist the crystal ball? No. But they can be sure to play a FOOTBALL game EVERY Saturday because of the parity in their conference, something that should celebrated by all sports fans.
Just sayin...
Why, then, is parity not celebrated in college football?
The SEC has three ranked teams, all in the top 8: Florida (1), Alabama (2), and LSU (3). The Pac-10 has five ranked schools, 11 or lower: Oregon (11), Stanford (17), USC (18), Oregon St. (19), and California (25).
People will jump at the chance to tell you how great the SEC is (especially out this way) and laugh if you even ask about the legitimacy another conference. I believe that the Pac-10 is another legitimate conference that gets no love because the teams in their conference can -and do- beat up on each other every season. Not only do they play a tough conference schedule, they also play the toughest non-conference schedule in college football. While Alabama schedules Florida International, North Texas, and UT-Chattanooga (they also played #15 Va Tech at a neutral site), Florida schedules Charleston Southern, Florida International, Troy, and Florida State, and LSU schedules Washington, Louisiana-Lafayette, Tulane, and Louisianna Tech, Oregon plays at #6 Boise State, hosts Purdue and #21 Utah, Stanford plays at Wake Forest, hosts San Jose State and Notre Dame, USC hosts San Jose State and travels to #10 Ohio State and Notre Dame, Oregon State plays Portland State, UNLV, and #5 Cincinatti, and California plays an SEC-esque non-conference schedule with Maryland, Eastern Washington, and Minnesotta.
Obviously the Pac-10 ranked teams will have more games against ranked opponents than the SEC ranked teams due to their conference schedules, but the Pac-10 consistently goes East against ranked or 2nd tier programs which feature games that offer parity. I think Georgia is the only SEC team to play outside of the "south" when they lost their opener in Stillwater, OK against the Cowboys of OK State.
Do I think Florida and Alabama could beat these ranked Pac-10 Schools? Of Course. I give those teams the nod 8 out of 10 times against the ranked Pac-10 teams, except USC, who will win four out of ten.
The SEC championship game will be fun to watch because it features two evenly-matched teams vying for a spot in the BSC National Title Game (unless the MOCS knock off Bama this weekend in Tuscaloosa!!!). Aside from that I would much rather follow the Pac-10 regular season. Florida and Alabama fans have a 50% chance to win their conference and all of the marbles are laid down in one game. Pac-10 supporters of these 5 ranked teams have a 20% chance to win their conference. The odds are weaker, but the payoff is greater. Will their teams get to hoist the crystal ball? No. But they can be sure to play a FOOTBALL game EVERY Saturday because of the parity in their conference, something that should celebrated by all sports fans.
Just sayin...
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Welcome Address
All,
Welcome. There will be more to follow. This will be primarily a sport-centered opinion piece, hopefully on a weekly basis. I will try to stay away from facts and stats, that way I cannot be proven wrong. Thank you for caring enough about me to spend time reading what I have to say. This is an embryonic idea, but hopefully it will turn me into an ESPN analyst when my teaching days are over...
Welcome. There will be more to follow. This will be primarily a sport-centered opinion piece, hopefully on a weekly basis. I will try to stay away from facts and stats, that way I cannot be proven wrong. Thank you for caring enough about me to spend time reading what I have to say. This is an embryonic idea, but hopefully it will turn me into an ESPN analyst when my teaching days are over...
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